"El Nino Seems All But Certain: Australia"

"SYDNEY -- An El Nino weather pattern this year appears almost certain, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said on Wednesday in a revised forecast, raising the prospect of drought in Australia and a even weaker monsoon in India.

The odds for El Nino, an abnormal warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean that creates havoc in weather patterns across the Asia-Pacific region, had risen significantly since two weeks ago, when the bureau said there was a more than 50 percent chance.

'El Nino is a little bit like recession, you are in it before you can say you have one. If it continues as it is now, the historians will say the El Nino started in May,' said David Jones, head of the bureau's climate analysis....

He said they could declare a full El Nino within weeks."

Bruce Hextall and Michael Perry report for Reuters July 1, 2009.